Published: 26.01.2023 Updated: 30.01.2023

Viktors Ajevskis

Working paper

ABSTRACT

In the conventional perturbation approach for solving DSGE models, the dynamics of the deviation of solutions from the steady state after a shock hitting an economy represents an impulse response function (IRF). A method to construct the IRF as a deviation from a deterministic global solution is proposed. The approach detects asymmetric reactions of an economy to shocks in different initial conditions. For example, in an economic downturn a negative shock might affect the economy more severely than in normal economic conditions. The method allows for constructing the IRF for highly nonlinear DSGE models.

Keywords: DSGE, perturbation, global solution, trend inflation

JEL code: C62, D58, D84

Andrejs Zlobins

Working paper

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB) forward guidance (FG) on the euro area economy and analyses its interaction with asset purchases. To that end, we employ a battery of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with both constant and time-varying parameters and/or the error covariance matrix to explore the propagation of the FG shock over time and account for the changing nature of the ECB's FG (Odyssean since July 2013, Delphic prior to that). The FG shock is identified via both traditional sign and zero restrictions of Arias et al. (2014) and narrative sign restrictions of Antolin-Diaz and Rubio-Ramírez (2018) which allow us to incorporate additional information about the timing of the shock to sharpen the inference. We find that the ECB's FG on interest rates has been an effective policy tool as its announcement causing a 5 bps drop in interest rate expectations increases output by 0.09%–0.12% and the price level by 0.035%. In addition, multiple evidence suggests that the introduction of the expanded asset purchase programme (APP) in 2015 considerably enhanced the FG credibility. Regarding the transmission mechanism, we find that FG significantly lowered uncertainty in the euro area as well as borrowing costs for both households and firms.

Keywords: forward guidance, central bank communication, unconventional monetary policy, euro area, structural VAR

JEL code: C54, E32, E52, E58

Andrejs Zlobins

Working paper

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB) expanded asset purchase programme (APP) on Latvia and other euro area countries and investigates the cross-border transmission mechanism. To that end, we employ two different vector autoregressive (VAR) models often used to evaluate the spillovers stemming from the monetary policy actions, namely a bilateral structural VAR with block exogeneity (BSVAR-BE) and a multi-country mixed cross-section global VAR with stochastic volatility (MCS-BGVAR-SV), both estimated using Bayesian techniques. We find that the APP had a limited and weakly significant impact on Latvia's output and that most of the effect was generated by spillovers from other countries. However, we provide evidence that the APP had a robust impact on Latvian inflation due to depreciation of the euro. Regarding other jurisdictions, our results suggest that the ECB's asset purchases had a larger impact on industrial production in the countries where the portfolio rebalancing channel was activated. Despite that, our evidence suggests that the APP was mainly transmitted to inflation via exchange rate depreciation rather than through aggregate demand-driven shifts in the Phillips curve.

Keywords: expanded asset purchase programme, quantitative easing, euro area, GVAR, SVAR, Bayesian estimation

JEL code: C54, E47, E58, F42

Boriss Siliverstovs

Working paper

ABSTRACT

In this paper we reassess the forecasting performance of the Bayesian mixed-frequency model suggested in Carriero et al. (2015) in terms of point and density forecasts of the GDP growth rate using US macroeconomic data. Following Chauvet and Potter (2013), we evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the model relative to a univariate AR(2) model separately for expansions and recessions, as defined by the NBER business cycle chronology, rather than relying on a comparison of forecast accuracy over the whole forecast sample spanning from the first quarter of 1985 to the third quarter of 2011. We find that most of the evidence favouring the more sophisticated model over the simple benchmark model is due to relatively few observations during recessions, especially those during the Great Recession. In contrast, during expansions the gains in forecasting accuracy over the benchmark model are at best very modest. This implies that the relative forecasting performance of the models varies with business cycle phases. Ignoring this fact results in a distorted picture: the relative performance of the more sophisticated model in comparison with the naive benchmark model tends to be overstated during expansions and understated during recessions.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, real-time data, business cycle

JEL code: C22, C53