To assess the economic effects of the transition to a greener economy in Latvia, Latvijas Banka uses two types of models: computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) models. While the particular strength of CGE models is the explicit introduction of many economic sectors and the evaluation of detailed sector-specific economic effects in the short run, the DSGE models are well suited to investigate the dynamic aspects of the transition period and to take account of uncertainty along the green transition.
First, the CGE model developed at Latvijas Banka is based on the Input-Output table for Latvia and consists of more than 60 thousand equations, which allows to assess how changes in costs, foreign and domestic supply and demand, taxes, productivity, and macroeconomic conditions affect economic activity in each industry (e.g., production, export, import, prices, wages) and the government budget. The model has recently been updated to improve the modelling of the energy sector and energy use by different industries, as well as to calculate CO2e emissions from production and costs related to carbon pricing. In particular, the costs faced by producers due to carbon taxes and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) are now modelled explicitly. This enables the model to simulate the economic effects of changes to carbon taxation rates and rules (coverage) and the prices of EU ETS carbon emission quotas, including the introduction of a new EU ETS for housing and transport planned for 2026.
Second, the DSGE model for the green economy developed at Latvijas Banka is a medium-scale small open economy model, calibrated to Latvia’s economy, with a carbon-intensive (brown) sector utilizing fossil fuels imported from abroad and an emission-free (green) sector utilizing domestically produced renewable energy. The key difference to the classic DSGE model for Latvia is thus the explicit introduction of two production sectors that differ in their environmental impact. This basic production structure is complemented by explicitly adding green fiscal policy considerations in the fiscal sector (i.e., emission caps, carbon taxes, and green subsidies) and a banking sector that provides loans to both the green and the brown sector but faces loan type-specific bank regulation policies.
Related publications
- Grüning, P. (2022). Fiscal, Environmental, and Bank Regulation Policies in a Small Open Economy for the Green Transition: Working Papers, 2022/06, Latvijas Banka.
- Benkovskis, K., Matvejevs, O. (2023). Latvia’s CGE with GHG Emissions and Extended Energy Sector. Latvijas Banka, Working Paper forthcoming in 2023.